Neither the excessive inflation that hits the euro zone at a maximum of four decades, nor the threat of an expected recession by the end of the first quarter of 2023 have prevented citizens from launching a normalized summer for the first time since 2019. Doubts now fall on what will happen in the fall. Even with everything, by the end of the first half, Spain had managed to increase the number of hotel nights just 11% below pre-pandemic levels, with nearly 132 million hotel nights. And the forecast of both government and employers is that this summer the figures seen before Covid will even be exceeded.
For now, analysts expect that the four largest listed companies in the sector that appear on the Ibex 35 -Aena, Amadeus, IAG and Meliá Hotels- place, on average, their revenues in the third quarter of the year. year (in other words, the strongest since it occupies the summer months) only, paradoxically, 11% below those reached in July, August and September of 2019. Earnings are a different story, although guidance has improved for all but IAG.
The case of the hotel chain chaired by Gabriel Escarrer is particularly significant, for which the consensus already gives a positive net profit for 2022, with 29 million euros compared to the losses of barely three months ago.
Airport manager Aena is the company in the sector that sees the most improvement in a quarter your estimates. Up to 21% The consensus raised its profit estimate for the end of 2022, with more than 600 million euros in profit. At the end of June, this stood at 163.8 million and showed black figures for the first time after eight consecutive quarters of losses. However, there is still time to recover from the pandemic, since in 2019 it reached a profit of 1,442 million euros, 140% more than expected for this year, and it is something that should not not happen before 2025.
Aena managed to close the first six months of the year with 104.9 million travelers passing through Spanish airport terminals and this represents a rate of 82% recovery from reported traffic in the first half of 2019. Not only is this data positive, but it becomes more relevant given the improvement in expectations compared to the beginning of June, when the expected recovery rate -compared to 2019- was 68% in traffic passengers and now the range has increased to 75%-85% this year.
And what is expected is the return of the dividend after three years of cancellation (remember that the payment corresponding to 2019 was not distributed in 2020 due to the impact of the pandemic). Analysts predict that compensation for Aena exceeds 3 euros per share, which is reporting returns of 2.4%, although this will not be confirmed by the company until the end of the year. The last payment approved by the manager was 7.5 euros. “Aena continues to be the best positioned in the industry in Europe in the face of a recovery in air traffic thanks to greater exposure to short-haul flights and should therefore also be the first to restore the share given its higher cash flow and expected earnings,” said analyst firm JP Morgan.
Hotels in Melia
“The activity retake is faster than expected”, they point out from Renta 4 after knowing the half-year results of Meliá Hotels in which he left behind, with 3 million euros, losses and revenues of 741.4 million, the double those of 2021. hotel chain of the Escarrer family is the closest to the realization a post-pandemic recovery in its numbers. revenue is expected for the third quarter of around 520 million euros, or 9% less than the same period of 2019, although the company could surprise on the upside. The board announced a week ago that its EBITDA forecast for this year was more than 400 million euros, including German government aid, around 100% higher than the consensus of the market.
Looking ahead to 2024, they already expect 2019 EBITDA margins to recover by at least 3 percentage points, up to 29.3% – it closed that year at 26.3% -.
“The second quarter of the year was a turning point for Meliá, practically recovered from the Covid. As for the third quarter, hotel bookings are just below 2019 levels. It seems that the problems faced by European airlines and airports have had a limited impact, which should allow for a solid second half. “says JP Morgan who recalls that only the third quarter of the year Meliá generates 30% of its annual gross profit, coinciding with the summer.
The Mallorca-based hotel chain is the only company in the sector, along with NH Hotel Group, to have a Buy recommendation from analysts. Its upside potential is 27%; compared to its comparable Continuum, with 20%. It is also the company, if we exclude eDreams, the closest to returning to pre-Covid levels on the stock market, since its share is only 17% lower than its quotation in February 2020, before the crash.
The travel manager closed the month of June with revenues that were already almost 90% of what he obtained during the same period of 2019. “It is very remarkable, even more so given the problems strikes and staff shortages that affected the sector in the second quarter”, say Barclays experts, thanks to the fact that, gradually, “it is increasing its market share” since it is the world’s leading firm, ahead of the American Saber.” We hope he manages to increase his share by another 5 percentage points until 2025, especially after the alliance signed with Air India whereby it adds an additional 22 million potential passengers over pre-Covid levels and which represents 0.5% of market share at the World level.”
Amadeus reported operating profit of 496 million euros in the second quarter of the year, with margins of 41.9%. Although the company insists on not offering tips Given the market uncertainty, the IATA (International Air Transport Association) forecasts traffic ratios that will be 18% lower than in 2019 this exercise, which suggests a 2023 at full capacity, above what we believed only a few months ago.
In the last quarter, analysts improved their profit forecast for the manager by 10% in 2022, to 668 million euros, and by another 2% for 2023, when it will again reach 1,100 million euros. If reached, it would equal the result of 2019 and, if exceeded, it would reach a historic profit.
Its shares are listed on the stock exchange still 24% below pre-pandemic levelswith a potential close to 12% and a recommendation to hold.
He’s the eternal contender for the star of an unprecedented stock market comeback, but it never stops. The IAG action, which remains close to 1.5 euros, still assumes losses of more than 70%, by far the most sanctioned firm in the sector. To the doubts on the recovery, the strikes of the staff of the airline companies, was added the increase in the price of oil in recent months, which IAG has “covered 81% for the third quarter, at a price 28% lower than that of the market”. , 65% for the fourth and 34% for 2023”, which they harvest in Sabadell.
Additionally, the airline expects “profit per passenger to exceed 2019 levels by 6% this summer, with the reserves at 90%, revenues at 95% and in Spain above 100″, they point out to Bank of America after learning of the company’s half-year results. After losing 654 million until June, the second half will reach a profit of 2,000 million and for the first times in positive since the second half of 2019. Losses of 160 million are expected for the full year and it will return to profits of more than 900 million for next year.