The negative effects of inflation on the economy continue to appear. last July, the CPI rose to 10.8%a historic and unprecedented figure which is already collaterally affecting the finances of the housesand not only by rising prices.
In the first quarter of 2022, Spain recorded a 4.1% drop in disposable income per capita compared to the previous three months, which represents the third most pronounced quarterly decline among the countries of the Organization for Cooperation and Development. economic development. (OECD) only surpassed by Chile and Austria, despite being the largest collapse between the great powers organisation. On average, the club from the most developed countries in the world suffers a loss of 1.1% of disposable income, according to figures from the institution.
The “think tank” of advanced economies points out that the decline in real per capita income of houses in the first quarter of 2022 was partly due to rising consumer prices, which undermined household income in real terms.
In fact, the more than 20 million Spanish workers are accumulating losses of purchasing power this year, they exceed 6%. A drop that underpins the upward trend in wages, which does not exceed 2.5% in a context where the main macroeconomic analysis institutions have already revised upwards the CPI for the whole of the year, which would close in 7.9% according to the consensus of analysts Funcas.
Consumption, without fuel
Thus, among the members of the OECD, the largest decline in per capita income available compared to the previous quarter were observed in Chile (-10.4%), as well as in Austria (-5.5%) and Spain (-4.1%). On the contrary, the best evolution was recorded in Poland (+7.5%), Belgium (+3.9%) and Hungary (3.7%). This supposes, beyond that, a catalyst for the fall in demand and consumption, that is already starting to slow down economic growth developed powers.
Among the countries of G7, during the first quarter of 2022, disposable income per capita fell by 1.9% in France and by 1.8% in the United States, as well as by 1.7% in Germany. For their part, they increased by 0.3% in Italy.
Similarly, the OECD has reported that, unlike the loss of household disposable income, the GDP per capita has increased 0.2% in the first three months of the year, prolonging the strongest growth in GDP per capita in relation to disposable income per capita over four consecutive quarters. Disposable income per capita in the OECD was thus 2.9% higher in the first quarter than in the last quarter of 2019, before the Covid pandemic, while GDP per capita is 1.6% higher.
Spain, more volatile than the rest of Europe
Precisely this circumstance was confirmed a few hours ago also by the Bank of Spain by verifying that our country is more sensitive to rising food prices than the rest of the European Union’s neighbours.
Indeed, the weight of food in the shopping basket largely determines the heterogeneous impact of the increase in the price of food raw materials in the different countries. While in all of eurozone This weight is in 17% and food have contributed 0.9 percentage point to the rise in the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), on average, over the last three quarters, in Spain the weight amounts to 22% and the average contribution was 1.4 percentage points.
According to the most recent information, corresponding to the month of June, the contribution of food to inflation rate general in Spain was 2.9 points, compared to 1.7 points in the euro zone. All in all, the Bank of Spain estimates that a temporary increase of 10% in the rate of change in food commodity prices has repercussions on an increase in total inflation in the euro zone (HICP) of around three tenths after twelve months .
The future course of food prices is subject to “high uncertainty”, as the report warns. Although the forecasts available, both from institutions and from world Bank as well as the food futures markets, point to a certain downward trend in the years to come.